Statistics: How far goes my car?
View Sequence overviewWe make predictions in response to a question.
Whole class
Floor space
Each student
A toy car
Sticky notes to mark predictions
Lesson
Ask: Can you predict the future?
Introduce the idea of prediction and ask students to suggest ways we predict the future. Suggestions might include:
- predicting the weather, such as when it might rain.
- predicting the next events as we read a story.
- predicting classroom activities, such as what might happen next in a day.
Record student responses on the board.
Ask: Which of these are easy predictions to make? Which are more difficult? Why do you think that?
- We draw from our experience to anticipate something that is likely, such as looking for dark clouds to predict rain. When we don’t have experience of something, or our experience is limited, it is more difficult to make an informed prediction.
Encourage students to refer to the experience that they base their prediction on. They can use their experience as evidence for what they think is likely to happen. Emphasise that a prediction is not expected to be exact, but what might happen.
Making predictions
Making predictions is a natural experience of everyday life. When we ask students to make a prediction, they use their prior experience as evidence to infer what is most likely. A prediction is not meant to be exactly right, as the outcome is uncertain. The more experiences or evidence students have to draw from, the more accurate their predictions become.
Making predictions is a natural experience of everyday life. When we ask students to make a prediction, they use their prior experience as evidence to infer what is most likely. A prediction is not meant to be exactly right, as the outcome is uncertain. The more experiences or evidence students have to draw from, the more accurate their predictions become.
Convene students together as a whole class in an open space. Show students a toy car.
Ask: What can we find out about a toy car?
Provide each student with a toy car and allow them time to play with their car so that they can notice some things about it.
Reconvene the class together when students have had time to play. Discuss some things they noticed about their car. Some suggestions might include how fast it went, the colour, if the wheels get stuck, or that it had a big crash.
Ask: How far do you think a toy car might roll?
Invite students to make a prediction. Having just played with their cars students will have experience to draw on. However, their prediction may be based on how far they would like it to go rather than what is likely based on their prior experience of toy cars so far.
Pose the activity: Let’s see how close our predictions are.
Divide the students into pairs and provide each student with a toy car and sticky notes/dots.
Explain that one student will be the ‘roller’, and the other student will be the ‘predicter’. The predicter makes a prediction for how far the car might roll, using a sticky note to mark where the car might stop. The roller then rolls their car and both students compare the prediction and where the car actually stops. Students take turns to be the roller and the predicter.
Allow students time to engage in the activity and then convene a class discussion.
Discuss:
- What are some things you noticed about predicting and rolling the cars?
- Some students’ predictions may have been based on how far they would like the car to go rather than what was likely, and so their predictions may have been way off.
- Students will have rolled in different ways. Some will have done a gentle roll, while others will have rolled vigorously. The predicter might not know in advance how forcefully the car will be rolled, which makes it hard to predict.
- Did you change your prediction after you saw the car roll? Why?
- Gettting more experience with rolling cars and seeing how far they go improves the accuracy of predictions.